On the 10th, the domestic leading brand of new energy vehicle battery power pre-disclosed the GEM IPO prospectus in Ningde Times, with an estimated value of RMB 130 billion. Listed at this price, the Ningde era will be the first to become the power battery. Six months ago, the Ningde era has ushered in the first round of valuations, reaching 84 billion. Six months later, the increase in valuation of 50 billion yuan continued its rapid growth in the sluggish manufacturing industry.
However, the Ningde era is only a performer at the front desk of the era. Behind the scenes, a kind of grudge behind the new energy automobile industry chain of China, Japan and South Korea constitutes the three kingdoms of the power battery, showing a chapter of another drama.
Tai Chi Tiger enters ChinaOn October 22, 2015, the factory of Xiyuan San Road in Xi'an High-tech Zone was crowded with people. Samsung (SDI) Central New Power Battery Co., Ltd. completed the project here.
Five days later, LG completed its power battery plant in Nanjing.
Both of the completion ceremonies attracted a large number of executives from the depot. Many of them were independent car owners. Leaders of car companies suffering from unsatisfactory electric vehicle experience have come to join in this event. They are also liaising with South Korea’s two major power battery giants in order to obtain more high-quality foreign-powered batteries for domestic consumption. The short-sightedness of the electric car is urgent.
International power battery industry is currently recognized as the top three - Panasonic, Samsung, LG. Perhaps it should have been Sony's position, but on the road to the auto market, Sony has fallen behind.
The principle of lithium battery technology was proposed by American Goodenough. The first commercialization was Sony of Japan. In the 1990s, Sony pioneered the introduction of a cylindrical 18650 lithium battery, 18650 days to become the industry standard - 18 represents the diameter of 18 mm, 65 represents the length of 65 mm, 0 is the image of the cylinder. However, Sony, who was obsessed with consumer electronics black technology, later played his own PC business and played cell phones. Lithium batteries used in consumer electronics products were also sold to Murata by Sony last year. Li-battery founders, lost their voice in the dynamic battery market.
South Korea’s Samsung and LG have demonstrated their traditional strengths in electronics manufacturing. After learning about battery technology from Japan, they used it for their own purposes and succeeded in occupying the market. In the electric vehicle market in North America, the Korean power has long since infiltrated. The Chevrolet Volt, a generation of electric vehicles that GM has pushed, uses the power battery provided by Samsung SDI; LG also won the battery order of the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid. In Europe, Samsung and LG also signed power supply battery supply agreements with BMW and Mercedes.
Under the efforts of Samsung and LG, as the Japanese power of AESC - the only supplier of power batteries for the Nissan Leaf, the industry status is at stake. However, the existence of Panasonic made Japanese forces still occupy the tip of the power battery pyramid.
Panasonic’s cooperation with Tesla took the position of the first supplier of power batteries for electric vehicles. Together with Tesla, the power system consisted of more than 7000 18650 cells, which surprised the electric vehicle market and opened up the cylinder. Lithium-ion batteries make up this genre.
The throne of Panasonic was not cast in one day. In 2009, Panasonic acquired Sanyo Electric, which was at the top of the global lithium battery market. After the acquisition, Panasonic obtained Sanyo's market and also gained the latter's technology accumulation on the power lithium battery. Tesla's orders can be obtained, and volume is on the one hand. On the other hand, Panasonic has played a pioneering role in promoting lithium battery technology advancement. In the Tesla Model S/X series, Panasonic pioneered the use of non-mainstream nickel-cobalt-aluminum-oxide (NCA) ternary materials. When domestic power battery companies can only achieve a capacity of 2,200mAh for 18650 batteries, The battery's capacity was raised to 3100mAh - the same volume, more than half the energy.
This is not finished yet. In the 21700 cell that Tesla Model 3 will use, Panasonic also uses a carbon-silicon negative electrode, that is, 10% of silicon is added to the conventional graphite negative electrode, and the theoretical energy density of silicon is about 10 times that of graphite. In this way, the overall battery power is further increased. Because of Panasonic's excellent power battery technology, Tesla is second to none in endurance.
In return, Tesla’s annual shipment of nearly 100,000 electric vehicles also contributed to Matsushita. However, when Tesla wanted to mass-produce the civilian-level electric model Model 3, Panasonic's production capacity became a bottleneck. This problem on the one hand promoted the birth of the Tesla super battery plant Gigafactory. On the other hand, Elon Musk met with Panasonic's rivals Samsung and LG.
For Matsushita, the good news is that Musk has not chosen to betray, but the price is to invest Tesla's $230 million (this is part of it, Panasonic promised a maximum investment of $1.6 billion) in exchange for Silicon Valley Iron Man's temporary Peace of mind.
For Samsung and LG, which have not made substantive progress here in Tesla, China, which has vigorously promoted new energy vehicles, has become a market high where Korean power battery manufacturers surpass Japan. So the two factories that were completed in the first week of the article became the bridgehead for the Korean forces to break into the Chinese market.
Even if the performance is not as extreme as Panasonic, Samsung and lG's power battery is still higher than the domestic power battery in terms of energy density, consistency, and cycle life. The completion of the factory in China will enable its power battery prices to drop substantially. As a result, Korean power batteries will be superior to domestic power batteries in terms of performance and cost.
This is indeed the case. After the completion of the SDI and LG factories in China, orders from domestic OEMs flew in snow, be it domestic cars or buses. As of 2015, six of the top 15 passenger car companies in domestic shipments reached preliminary supply agreements with Samsung SDI and LG, accounting for one-third of the Chinese bus market.
For a time, the sound of Korean-based power batteries will monopolize the Chinese market. The Tai Chi tiger has entered China. China has not grown up. How does the battery industry fight with people? If you take down the huge Chinese market, South Korea's power battery industry will undoubtedly defeat Japanese power.
However, South Koreans apparently underestimated China’s determination to rely on new energy vehicles in the global automotive industry, and underestimated the impact of their geographical location—in the tangible hand-waving Chinese market, in the geopolitical region. In politically sensitive and complex Northeast Asia, business has never been more than business.
Ministry of Industry and Information TechnologyWhen South Korean power batteries hit the market in the Chinese market, domestic companies are still tangling in which direction the power battery should be chosen. Affected by the previous policy adjustment, the mainstream of the domestic market is the development of a good safety lithium iron phosphate battery, the country's largest car supplier Wanxiang Group, for this purpose thousands of miles of the acquisition of the United States A123, in order to obtain the latter in the lithium iron phosphate Ikegami advanced patented technology. The consideration at that time was that foreign countries had led too much in ternary lithium technology and lithium iron phosphate, which was not valued abroad, was expected to overturn. The starting point was good, but after the implementation, it was rejected by reality. The birth defects of lithium iron phosphate batteries with low energy density become increasingly unforgivable under the anxiety of consumers' electric vehicle mileage.
The heat of new energy vehicles has spawned a large number of domestic players to enter the game, but many of them have no technology that can compete with Japanese and South Korean companies. They have just caught sight of the enthusiasm and subsidies, and they must make a profit. Those who hold central projects, those supported by local governments, and those affiliated with car companies are each fighting.
The Samsung and LG giant chaebols were integrated giant ships, and the scale and technical superiority brought by the oversized masses armed their guns.
In the face of the Korean battery, the domestically powered battery of the skill tree was challenged. The Ningde era, pushed forward by the turbulent times of the times, is a rare fig leaf, but it is still difficult to hide the fact that the industry as a whole is being suppressed by Korean batteries.
Among them, the Ningde era once stood up and questioned Samsung and LG for suppressing domestic power battery makers with low prices, and listed the continuous losses of Samsung and LG's factories in China as citations. However, the price of lithium battery industry is relatively transparent, and the Ministry of Commerce has not made anti-dumping investigations on Samsung's and LG's power batteries.
Learn to introduce Japan and the United States technology - the government fully supports the establishment of technology and price advantages - the chaebol forces took over the global market, and the three axes of South Korea's electronics manufacturing industry tried to break through, first smashing Japan's memory manufacturing, and in turn Japan's panel manufacturing. Get it right. Today, the axe hit the power battery in China. In the industry in which South Korea has established an advantage, China’s memory manufacturing has not made any achievements, and the panel industry has retained a BOE. The power battery industry as the heart of the future car, the strategic significance is self-evident, let it be crushed by the Korean company, is naturally impossible.
Attacks supported by national forces can only deal with national-level defenses.
Domestic power batteries can be present today. Perhaps we must first thank the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
On June 20, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a business directory that complies with the "Automotive Battery Industry Specification Conditions" (hereinafter referred to as the "Standard Conditions"). Both Samsung and LG Power Battery in China failed to enter the list. This list is directly linked with the "Recommended Vehicle Catalogue for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Recommended Catalogue"). New energy vehicles complying with the "regulatory conditions" of enterprise power batteries can be used to obtain the "recommended list" and receive new energy subsidies provided by the Chinese government. Depot manufacturers must consider how to get high subsidies when they choose suppliers of power batteries. As a result, the Chinese government has established a price advantage indirectly for domestic power batteries.
The price is only one, and more importantly, a number of car executives said that there is no risk of being listed and sold without the new energy vehicle products listed in the “Recommended Catalogâ€. Although it has not been officially confirmed, this hidden danger has caused domestic automakers to be on their backs and began to switch to domestic power battery suppliers. However, later, the linkage between the two documents was suspended, and many new energy vehicles whose power batteries did not enter the “Regulations†entered the fourth batch of “Recommended List†in 2016. This also makes some OEMs believe that there are still opportunities for cooperation with Korean power batteries. However, it is worth noting that those new energy vehicles that have entered the "Recommended List" use domestic batteries.
The story of making the depots more determined to "support domestic products" took place at the end of last year.
On December 29, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicized the Catalogue of Recommended Vehicles for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (5th Batch), which included 493 models of 95 companies. On the early morning of December 29th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a short list of 498 models in the fifth batch, but this list was quickly deleted.
Among the changing models, foreign batteries have been applied in full. Among them, the battery of the Shaanxi Auto brand electric van for the Shaanxi Automobile Group comes from the Samsung Xin Xi'an Battery Factory.
The most dramatic SAIC Roewe eRX5 did not hesitate to take the risk test and showed what was "reverse operation" - eRX5 was once in the 4th batch of "Recommended Catalogue". At that time, eRX5 used SAIC's new energy company. Power Battery. For the eRX5 in the fifth batch of applications, the power battery used was from "Nanjing Lejin Chemical New Energy Battery Co., Ltd.". The so-called "Nanjing Lucky Gold" is the power battery factory of LG in Nanjing.
After this campaign, an inseparable vehicle manufacturer should also know at this time that the Korean power battery is a high-voltage wire that cannot be touched. Also in this campaign, the president of domestic power battery company breathed a sigh of relief and the pressure from South Korean competitors was thrown back.
The time came on February 8, 17th. The same day, the Samsung SDI Tianjin battery factory was blown up.
"SDI", "Battery", "Explosion", and a series of keywords are reminiscent of the fear of being dominated by Note7. However, this explosion did not affect the listing of Samsung's new flagship mobile phone, the S8, because the SDI Tianjin plant is the same as Samsung's factory in Xi'an. The main business is the power battery business.
However, this explosion revealed the collapse of Samsung’s and South Korean power battery companies’ business in China.
At the end of March, the joint venture between Beijing Automotive and SKI in Beijing announced the suspension of production. Compared to the fanfare of Samsung and LG, SKI, which is also a Korean company, has been making a fortune. At the end of 2013, SKI established a joint venture in China with Beijing Automotive Group and Beijing Electronics Holdings Co., Ltd., named Beijing Electronic Control Technology Co., Ltd. (BESK), with a registered capital of 350 million yuan and 40 shares held by SKI. %, chaired by Xu Heyi, chairman of Beiqi Group.
The BESK battery pack production plant was built in Yizhuang, Beijing and provides battery support for BAE's new energy models. The total investment for the first phase of the project exceeded 150 million yuan and was officially put into operation at the end of June 2014. Its annual capacity is 12,000 unit battery packs. The project plans to invest a total of 1 billion to build 100,000 unit battery packs.
Before the announcement of the suspension of production of the joint venture plant by BAIC and SKI, at the end of February, Sino-Korea relations were in a sensitive period.
Also in March, industry sources said that the Samsung battery plant in Xi'an has been idle for several months, and the original plan of 600 million U.S. dollars of investment has shrunk, and the capacity expansion plan has been suspended. LG's Nanjing plant was transferred to SAIC after it was idle for a long time.
In October 2017, two Chinese-funded shareholders, Tianjin Zhonghuan Electronic Information Group Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Economic and Technological Development Zone, state-owned assets management company of Samsung SDI Tianjin announced the withdrawal of capital from SDI Tianjin. The two sides transferred a total of 30% of the equity, and the transfer price was only a hundred million higher than when it was participating in the stock. At this time, the Samsung SDI Tianjin plant has already indebted to 800 million yuan. The factory explosion coupled with the abrupt change in policy has once been a hot potato.
Over the course of a year, the history of the trip suddenly overturned, hoping to dominate the Chinese market to defeat Matsushita's Korean power battery, in front of policy. The Ningde era, where the technical direction chosen was most in line with the needs of the masses and the most technologically plentiful reserves, seized the opportunity and gained recognition.
Panasonic's first victoryIf only China and South Korea are concerned, the article should come to an end here. However, when South Koreans carry a large number of power batteries into China, where is Japan? Where is Panasonic? The final fact may be surprising: Panasonic, who came later than the Korean system, eventually took the lead in policy compliance and entered the Chinese market.
Japan, which has the strongest commercial technology for power batteries, naturally cannot turn a blind eye to South Korea’s move in the Chinese market. After all, relying on the share of contribution from the Chinese market, Koreans have beaten both in panel and memory. In addition, Panasonic naturally knows the taste of the long-sleeved dance of Elonmask.
At the end of 2015, when Samsung and LG's power battery factories were completed, Panasonic made an announcement and announced that it would invest 500 billion yen to build a power battery plant in Dalian Bonded Area. It is expected that the first phase of the project will be completed and put into production by the end of 17th. In May of this year, the factory was put into production, five months ahead of schedule, and the batteries produced "to meet Tesla's electric vehicle requirements." From the recruitment information point of view, this factory is still in the recruitment. It is worth pondering that when the Korean power battery suffered, the news that Matsushita Power Battery was put into production was on the website of the Ministry of Commerce. The so-called friendship between China and Japan is probably what this means.
Also in May, China’s Jetstar New Energy Technology announced that it had already acquired shares of Panasonic’s Sanyo Energy (Suzhou) Co., Ltd.. Among the total investment of 2.5 billion joint venture plants, Jetstar New Energy holds 47.75% of the shares. The plant produces 18650 batteries and power battery packs for the commercial vehicle market, with an annual production capacity of 100 million batteries. Jetstar New Energy specifically disclosed support from the Suzhou municipal government in its external voice, which hinted at the government’s tolerance attitude towards Japanese power batteries.
In addition to Panasonic, which dominates the power battery industry, AESC, which was not mentioned above, actually belongs to Japan. This sales is second only to the Nissan Leaf of Tesla Model S, which is powered by AESC. The AESC is developing a lithium manganate technology line. This kind of power battery is slightly better than lithium iron phosphate in energy density, but its service life, safety, and cost are not considered. Because of this, AESC has not been listed as a core asset by the Renault-Nissan Alliance. When it fails to create enough value, it can sell and sell.
In May, Jinshajiang Capital, headed by Wu Shenjun (note the difference between Jinshajiang Venture Capital and Wu Shenjun, who brought Zhu Xiaohu into the venture capital industry, but the paths they have taken are completely different - although they are all at the catchment point). It was reported by Bloomberg that it would spend US$1 billion to acquire a 51% stake in AESC. The Yangtze River Industry Fund, supported by the Hubei provincial government, is in the spotlight. Dongfeng Qichen, located in Hubei, has a siren that is similar to the Nissan Leaf. Purchased the battery suppliers of foreign car companies and moved them to Hubei. However, AESC chose to land in Zhenjiang, and Wu Xiangjun, who had spent a great deal of his energy from the United States on the landing of the Boston battery, was less than one hundred kilometers away. Regarding Wu Shenjun's power battery dream and even the new energy dream, that is another story. It is not here and there.
Immediately after June, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicized the "Recommended Vehicle Catalogue for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles," AESC, which is still a foreign-funded company, was shocked to list new energy vehicles equipped with its products. This was the first time that new energy vehicles using foreign-made batteries were registered. Recommended list. However, everyone thought that this was just a spoiler of the government's upcoming surname for AESC, and later the news was confirmed.
However, when Sanyo Energy (as mentioned above, Sanyo was acquired by Matsushita) appeared in the “Recommended Catalogueâ€, the meaning became obvious – domestically-driven power battery industry that was taken care of by the policy competed in the domestic market. Lieutenant will begin to return to the starting line with foreign batteries.
Panasonic, who was late in the Chinese market and missed the opportunity, eventually won first place and outperformed South Korea's chaebols. When the so-called time is also, life is also, what the Qi.
Domestic: The arrival of the era of great integrationWith the initial maturity of the domestic power battery industry, the gradual opening of the industry to foreign capital will become a major trend. Around the power battery, the industry in China, Japan and South Korea still has to
The problem is that at present, the domestic power battery power is still not strong enough, and Tesla, which formed a joint effort with Panasonic, will tear up the restrictions on the ratio of auto joint ventures around 2020 and build factories in China. The time window for the domestic power battery industry and even the new energy vehicle industry is still a few years away. The country is surrounded by mountains, and the freak dance - even black sesame which sells sesame paste has come to invest in power batteries - without forming a concerted force, it will certainly not be able to resist the forces of Japanese-Korea chaebols.
Therefore, the government's policy on the domestic power battery industry has also shifted from "non-differential encouragement" to "targeted support."
In early March, the four ministries and commissions issued the “Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry†and clearly stated:
By 2020, the specific capacity of the lithium-ion battery must reach 300Wh/kg, and the system specific capacity (ie, after the battery pack is packaged) strives for 260Wh/kg, the cost is 1 yuan/Wh, and the operating environment is -30°C to 55°C; With 3C charging capability.
In 2025, with solid-state (electrolyte solid state) batteries and lithium-air batteries being too far away from applications, we do not list them yet. Even at present, the specific capacity of Tesla batteries has only reached 250Wh/kg in various organizations. The best ternary lithium battery, the best performance does not exceed 200Wh/kg; limited by the consistency of the battery, the conversion efficiency after the composition of the battery pack is still lower than foreign batteries. In terms of cost, the mainstream price of domestic power batteries is around RMB 1.5/Wh.
For many power battery manufacturers, the indicators proposed by the "Program" are impossible tasks, but it is only one of the restrictive policies. On November 22 last year, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industry†(2017) (Draft for Soliciting Opinions), which included a “Lithium Ion Power Battery Enterprise with an annual production capacity of at least 8 Gigawatt hours. “The 8GWh†which puts pressure on the industry. When the article was issued, it was only possible to meet BYD's self-produced BYD.
Two seemingly improbable indicators of technology and scale are intended to promote the integration of power batteries from the top level, eliminate the backward production capacity created in the era of large subsidies, and create a large group that can compete positively with Japanese and South Korean giants. The valuation mania and listing plan in the Ningde era are the best comments on this line. BYD Lithium Iron phosphate made his home, also embarked on the study of three yuan lithium, chasing the path of high energy density.
However, the number of users who are still not up to standard, such as Waterma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Lishen, are desperately expanding their production capacity to reach the 8GWh line. Smaller ones are also desperately expanding their production capacity, and are looking to achieve mergers and acquisitions at the same time. This year's more than 30 mergers and acquisitions investment is the best expression of anxiety in the industry players.
Of course, under the prisoner's dilemma of competition created by fate, policy requirements have not yet reached an optimal solution. It is predicted that the planned capacity of the power battery industry will exceed 100 GWh this year, three times the actual demand, and a large amount of production capacity will be wasted. However, there is a lesson from the Japanese panel industry and the successful case with BOE. Such a sacrifice seems to be acceptable at the national level.
Aiming at the heart of the future car as a battery of power, China and Japan, South Korea and South Korea, have taken two consecutive turns and surrendered for more than three years. They have rallied for a few rounds and vowed to boost their industries.
1. With the support of the Chinese government, domestic power batteries are catching up with Japan and South Korea in terms of performance and scale, but there is still a considerable gap in overall strength.
2. The Korean opponents are very powerful both in capital and technical strength, and they are not only one. However, in the domestic policy environment, they have not tasted any good results. This is a good time for domestic companies to overtake the curve.
3. The Japanese representative technology is the most profound, but in terms of broadening the domestic market, there are no Japanese and South Korean players who are “rudeâ€, and the learning significance is greater than competition.
On the whole, the process of continuous advancement of the industry's tug of war around the new energy power battery is actually the stage where domestic new energy vehicles and new energy power battery industries mature.
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