Recommended Catalog Drives Sales of New Energy Commercial Vehicles

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Catalogue of Recommended Vehicle Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Recommended Catalogue") (12th batch in 2017). Up to now, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a total of 12 batches of recommended models, including a total of 3233 models. From the data point of view, the number of recommended models of new energy commercial vehicles in China has always maintained a growth trend, indicating that the development of the industry maintains a strong stamina. In addition, from the perspective of product parameters, the mainstream vehicles of new energy commercial vehicles have greatly improved their dynamics, economy, safety, and comfort, and their product performance has improved significantly.

According to the announcement, there are a total of 120 models of 49 companies in this batch of recommended directories. Among them, involved 106 pure electric products, 12 plug-in hybrid products, and two fuel cell products. According to the classification of vehicles, among the models that entered the list of recommendations, there were 62 new energy buses and 28 new energy vehicles.

â–  Electric bus rational development of fuel cell bus first recommended directory

When the reporter combed the 12 batches of recommended catalog models in 2017, it was found that the new energy recommended models generally showed an M-type trend.

Overall, the number of recommended models in 1 to 3 batches in 2017 is on the rise, and the total number of models entering 3 to 6 batches is decreasing. Affected by the new energy vehicle subsidy policy introduced at the end of 2016, two months after the introduction of the new subsidy policy, bus companies actively researched and developed new models that meet the New Deal. The new models are more obvious in terms of battery and motor hardware and overall safety. As a result, the number of new energy vehicles selected in the third batch has soared.

The number of 4 to 6 batches of new energy vehicles is decreasing, or it will be related to the “Regulations on the Administration of New Energy Vehicle Production Enterprises and Product Access” (hereinafter referred to as “Regulations”) on July 1, 2017. According to the reporter’s understanding, the “Regulations” pointed out that if enterprises that produce new energy vehicles have serious problems such as safety and quality, they must immediately stop production, sales, and carry out rectification, thus affecting the total number of 3 to 6 batches of new energy vehicles. Among them, the “Regulations” had the greatest impact on new energy bus companies. The total number of such models showed a cliff-type decline.

In the 6 to 12 batches of recommended models, there was a trend of volatility. Compared with the first half of 2017, the number of new energy models recommended in the second half of the year did not show any significant decline. In the second half of the year, the No.7, No.10 and No.11 batches were used as nodes to analyze 6 to 12 batches of recommended models according to four sections. According to industry analysts, 6 to 7 batches are on the rise, or with the first batch of new-entry car companies, after obtaining qualifications for pure electric vehicles, they will be further qualified for sales. The number of new energy vehicles totaling 7 to 10 batches accelerated, the number of 10 to 11 batches showed an upward trend, and the 11 to 12 batches showed a downward trend. This indicates that China's new energy auto market is gradually becoming more rational. It is worth noting that the number of vehicles in the 12th batch fell to the lowest level of the current year, or related to the fact that the auto companies are busy with inventory clearance, sales volume and performance.

It can be clearly seen from the trend of the chart that it is the changes in the recommended number of new energy buses that cause fluctuations in the recommended number of new energy vehicles. The recommended number of new energy buses experienced an explosive growth at the beginning of the year and began to fall sharply, eventually becoming flat. This also shows that the new energy bus industry is gradually returning rationally, and companies are paying more attention to the parameters and quality of the products rather than pushing for new models.

For the new energy bus companies, there are 113 bus companies entering the 1 to 12 batches of recommended catalogs in 2017, a total of 1,832 new energy passenger car models. On the technical route, 72 new energy buses entering the recommended list are all driven by pure electric power; only two new energy buses entering the recommended list are plug-in hybrids, and it is worth mentioning that in 2017, there were Hydrogen fuel cell buses of 8 companies entered the recommended list, and 31 companies had both pure electric buses and plug-in hybrid buses. This also means that hydrogen fuel cell buses have begun to be taken seriously and have entered the eve of mass production.

â–  The proportion of new energy vehicles gradually squeezing new energy buses

According to statistics, among the 1 to 12 batches of recommended models, 1832 models of new energy buses are used, accounting for 56.67%; and there are 994 models of new energy vehicles, accounting for 30.75%. Judging from the proportion of models, New Energy Bus still accounts for the largest proportion among the 1 to 12 batches of recommended models.

Of course, some people in the industry believe that the proportion of special vehicles for new energy will increase further in the future. From the data, the proportion of new energy special vehicles tends to decline in December 2017, eventually accounting for 23.33%, but still exceeds the share of the first quarter of 2017. As a whole, in 2017, the number of new energy special vehicle models in total represented an upward trend.

The proportion of new energy buses has started to decline since the third batch. This is related to the country’s threshold for raising subsidies for new energy vehicles and the rise of special vehicles for new energy. Hongsi Ming, deputy general manager of Suzhou Lukong Transmission Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that with the rapid development of the express delivery industry, the logistics vehicle market has been further opened, coupled with the country’s support for new energy vehicles, which has led to the development of new energy vehicles. In this year, it has risen to a new height.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, once stated that the market for new energy special vehicles is a treasure that needs to be developed, and has become a hot spot in the near future. It is understood that in the promotion catalog of new energy special vehicles, Geely Sichuan commercial vehicles ranked first with 4 new models, and Zhengzhou Yutong Heavy Industry and Luoyang CIMC Lingyu ranked second with 3 models respectively.

â– Recommended catalog to promote sales of new energy commercial vehicles

According to the reporter’s statistics, since 2015-2017, the recommended models of the models have been 1,857 models, 2198 models, and 3,233 models, showing an increasing trend year by year.

From the perspective of the number of new energy models in the 2015-2017 recommended list, the number of promotion of the three types of vehicles is increasing. Cui Dongshu believes that the recommended list is also worthy of industry analysis, which reflects the development trend and corporate layout of new energy vehicles.

Cui Dongshu emphasized that with the suspension of the original list of recommended companies, their qualifications have been fully restored, as well as the "Notice on Regulating the Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" and the "Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Taxes". Form a good combination of policies to further promote product upgrades. Through the analysis of the list of recommended models, not only can we see the new energy vehicle information pushed by car companies, but we will also see its contribution to the promotion of sales of new energy vehicles.

Of course, some people in the industry pointed out that although entering the recommended directory is conducive to corporate sales, the concentration of new energy bus market in 2017 is very high. From the sales of new energy buses in the previous 11 months, only Yutong Bus, BYD, Nanjing Jinlong, and Zhongtong Passenger cars, CRRC Times, Xiamen Golden Brigade, Xiamen Golden Dragon, Zhuhai Yinlong, Shenlong Bus, Beiqi Foton, Cnhtc Haowo, Ankai Bus, Shu Chi Bus and other dozens of corporate markets performed well, especially Yutong Bus and BYD's two houses occupy half of the country, while the rest of the companies are not.