The “diesel shortage” that swept across the country almost surprised all people, which also reflected the current institutional flaws in the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. The management has stated that it is necessary to improve the refined oil price mechanism. Then, this sudden oil shortage may be able to accelerate the pace of institutional improvement.

First of all, it must be made clear that this oil shortage has nothing to do with the overall supply and demand of oil refining capacity in the country, and the domestic oil refining capacity is certainly sufficient.

According to Chujie Wang, an energy analyst with Cinnabar, a domestic bulk goods information service provider, the main reason is that recently, in order to save energy and reduce emissions, many companies have increased the demand for oil products through diesel power generation. Meanwhile, oil companies are expecting demand for oil products. insufficient.

The unexpected diesel shortage in the country was caused by the lag in the pricing mechanism of refined oil products in the country, which led to the overall systemic response.

As of November 11, 2010, the national average wholesale price of No. 0 diesel has reached 7,900 yuan/ton, a substantial increase of about 1,000 yuan/ton from the beginning of September. According to the current supply and demand side, it will continue to be bullish, while the retail price is only around 7,450 yuan/ton during the same period, and the retail sales upside down is 400 yuan/ton.

In such a wholesale and reverse situation, selling a ton of loss of one ton, including wholesalers and retailers, is certainly not willing to sell oil products. It is conceivable that the market is reluctant to sell its products. In the short-term, there is a shortage of such prices that have not been rationalized. Will certainly continue.

According to the "Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)" promulgated in 2009, when the average price of international crude oil prices changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, refined oil prices can be adjusted. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the retail prices of refined oil products on October 26, 2010, but the rise in refined oil prices did not keep up with the recent rapid rise in international crude oil prices. On October 26, Brent crude oil price was 83.66 yuan/barrel, and November 8th. It closed at 88.19 US dollars/barrel, up 5.4%, and the rate of increase was too fast. It had not yet reached the condition of 22 days for the domestic refined oil price mechanism. This objectively aggravated the supply shortage caused by the price inversion.

The "22 days +4%" rate of change makes the domestic refined oil prices lag behind international crude oil prices. The lag has directly led to the emergence of speculative arbitrage and other issues. The middlemen can already calculate the price adjustment time based on the rising or falling level of international crude oil price. In the time window of the price increase overdue, the supply can be reduced and the price can be pushed up. Otherwise, the price can be suppressed. This actually caused artificial fluctuations in domestic refined oil prices during the cycle of price adjustments.

After the domestic oil price adjustment was raised on October 25, officials of the National Development and Reform Commission also stated that “the current pricing mechanism is likely to cause market hoarding. During the year, it will strive to improve the refined oil pricing mechanism, shorten the current price adjustment cycle, and indicate that the direction of future pricing mechanism reform is More transparent."

The essential cause of this diesel shortage is not related to the current domestic oil price mechanism. The negative impact of this oil shortage is significant. It can be expected that since the refined oil price system needs to be adjusted and promised to be adjusted, the emergence of this oil shortage will probably prompt the relevant authorities to make faster adjustments.

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