Since April last year, lithium carbonate prices have been on the decline channel. However, in the past three days, the share price of the lithium industry leader Tianqi Lithium has risen by 20%, and the cumulative increase since mid-January has exceeded 50%. Several other lithium carbonate concept stocks including Rongjie and Yahua Group have all recently surged.
What changes are facing the lithium industry under the new energy auto policy? Is there a performance support for the stock price of listed companies in the lithium carbonate sector?
The New Energy Vehicle New Deal was announced at the end of December last year. The biggest change in the New Deal is to link the subsidy of the power battery to the energy density and cruising range. In the face of policy changes, since the second half of last year, most of the new investment in power batteries has changed from the original lithium iron phosphate route to the ternary route. Because the potential of the ternary battery life is larger than that of lithium iron phosphate, it can meet the requirements of the country in the future. .
What changes in investment demand for lithium carbonate? A person in charge of the positive electrode material company, who is not willing to be named, told reporters that lithium ion is the metal that determines the battery power. The amount of lithium used in the ternary battery is basically the same as that of lithium iron phosphate. Therefore, the New Deal itself needs lithium. The impact is not big, the demand for lithium industry changes more depends on the growth of new investment in power battery itself.
According to the reporter's research, the new investment in power batteries in 2017 is expected to remain above 100 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 2016. As of the end of February 2017, the planned investment in new power batteries reached 20 billion yuan.
On the supply side, Li Jian, chief engineer of Qinghai Dongtai Jiiner Lithium Resources Co., Ltd., told the reporter that the company's construction project is still under construction this year and is expected to be put into operation next year. Qinghai Lithium Industry, which has achieved breakthroughs in brine extraction technology, is expected to achieve a design capacity of 9,000 tons this year with the resources supplied by Qinghai Dongtai Jinel Lithium Resources Co., Ltd., and the new one is expected to be around 500 tons. Overall, the increase in lithium production in Qinghai Salt Lake is not much this year.
Solid lithium mines in Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province are expected to be difficult to mine due to environmental factors.
In terms of overseas mines, the three major suppliers of the global lithium industry, the “three halogens and one mineâ€, have not released much new capacity this year. However, the new capacity of Jifeng Lithium and Jiangsu Yinhe Lithium is released, but it accounts for a small proportion.
Demand growth is expected to be higher than supply growth, and the new energy vehicle market is expected to restart soon after the New Deal. In this context, why did the price of lithium carbonate fall for nearly a year and still not rebound? The person in charge of the above positive electrode material said that lithium is not lacking in fact, and the company has a lot of inventory. Even with the current price of lithium carbonate, upstream companies still maintain high profits.
Tianqi Lithium Industry Annual Report shows that in 2016, the gross profit margin of each business segment of the company is around 70%. The company expects net profit for the January-March 2017 period to be 340 million yuan to 420 million yuan, an increase of 19.59% to 47.73%.
But the reality is that a lot of money flocked to the ternary route, bringing a change to the lithium battery industry, that is, the price of cobalt has soared 1.5 times since the bottom. This brings great cost pressure to the cathode material company. The person in charge of the above positive electrode material told reporters that the current high cobalt price, the company tends to reduce the amount of cobalt, that is, take the nickel route, to the ternary precursor + lithium hydroxide, which is the route Tesla takes.
The investment in lithium hydroxide has thus become a structural change in the lithium industry under the new policy of new energy vehicles. Tianqi Lithium is building a battery-grade single-water lithium hydroxide project with an annual production capacity of 24,000 tons in Australia to meet the market demand for high-end ternary materials.
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