Micro-vehicle is expected to "drive out" trough

With the acceleration of urbanization and the country's attention to the "three rural issues", micro-car companies are expected to usher in good news. Industry experts say that the low sales period of mini-vehicle sales is over. With the development of the micro-vehicle market, mini vehicle MPVs will be upgraded. High-tech and high-end has become a major trend in the future.

Market or warmer

According to data from China Automobile Association, the micro-car market performance is still not optimistic. In January 2013, the production and sales volume was 180,700 units and 197,100 units respectively, and the output was down 9.07% year-on-year, with sales volume down 1.59%. However, the statistics of the National Association of Passenger Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the "Chairman Association") are much more optimistic. In January, the sales volume of the mini-vehicle market reached 243,000, an increase of 28% year-on-year.

Regarding the difference between the statistics of the two organizations, Peng Jing, an auto industry analyst at Xinhuaxin International Information Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd. pointed out that this is due to the fact that China Automobile Association has divided Wuling Hongguang into the MPV market segment for statistics since January this year. If you add this part of the sales, the two data are basically the same, the micro-car market increased by about 27% year-on-year.

In response, Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the association, believes that the micro-vehicle market is a consumer group consisting mainly of farmers and individual private owners. With the construction of new countryside, farmers’ spending power will increase and the radius of economic activity will increase. The demand for cars is rigid. The recent development of new MPV-based micro-customers is very fast, which is beneficial to the upgrade and development of the micro-customer market and the expansion of the market, and the low sales period of mini-vehicle sales has already passed.

However, Peng Jing pointed out that if we look at the data in January alone, we believe that the growth of the mini-vehicle market this year will be judged to be inaccurate, because the Spring Festival last year was in January, and this year's Spring Festival in February, the sales day is different. Therefore, judging the data in January alone is not objective. The trend of the micro-car market this year depends on the data of the entire first quarter to be more accurate.

“According to our judgment, after two consecutive years of decline, the mini-vehicle market will stop falling in 2013 and no longer decline. The outlook will even increase slightly, but it will not be particularly obvious.” Peng Jing analyzed that the entire China's micro-vehicle market demand maintains a certain scale under the dynamic balance of new additions and replacements, and the mini-vehicle market in 2013 will remain at a scale of 2.4 to 2.5 million vehicles.

Increased concentration

In the micro car market or in 2013, which will pick up again, the competitive pattern of domestic mini-vehicle market will further intensify, and the market concentration will continue to increase.

According to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association, a total of 2,256,700 micro-vehicles were sold in 2012, a year-on-year decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the sales of the top five companies totaled 1,986,000, accounting for 88.01% of the total sales of mini vehicles. SAIC-GM-Wuling sold a total of 1,121,300 vehicles, accounting for 53.7% of the total.

According to the latest statistics from the CLUCC, the mini vehicle sales in January this year ranked in the top four: SAIC-GM-Wuling, Chongqing Changan, Dongfeng Xiaokang, Beijing Automobile Weiwang, sales volume accounted for more than 98% of the total sales of mini-car market.

According to Peng Jing's analysis, although from 2008 to 2009, the hot market of micro-vehicles caused many original non-mini vehicle manufacturers to enter this market segment, making the number of competitive enterprises in this market expand rapidly, but from the entire industry concentration. Looking at the situation, the entire competitive landscape has not changed significantly, especially the changes in the first three are not significant.

“There may be some special advantages in the latecomers, but because the micro-vehicle manufacturing industry is particularly important in terms of scale advantages, and the industry leaders have more obvious channel advantages in the long-term operation, the top three network layout is very wide, which makes it It is difficult for the industry leader to pose an effective threat," Peng Jing said. Cui Dongshu also pointed out that after the micro-vehicle market competition experienced a large expansion in the market explosion in 2009, the characteristics of the strong and strong have fully manifested.

In 2009, China introduced a “car to the countryside” policy that stimulates domestic demand. This policy provides one-time financial subsidies for farmers to purchase micro-vehicles with a displacement of 1.3 liters or less. This policy led to a significant increase of 79.7% and 25.5% of mini vehicle sales in China in 2009 and 2010.

However, after the cancellation of preferential policies such as national purchase tax incentives and car-to-country purchases in 2011, the overall market for the micro-vehicle market has been drastically reversed, and the negative effects of the hard landing of the market on blindly expanding micro-vehicle companies have continued to show. With the changes in the market environment and consumption upgrades, the mini-vehicle market has begun to enter the "adjustment period."

Increased competition from enterprises

The data of the CLUCC Hong Kong Association in January this year showed that in spite of the overall growth of the mini-vehicle market, sales of micro-vehicles such as Changhe, Hafei and FAW Jilin suffered serious declines in January, with drop rates of 73.6%, 71.6%, and 29.7%, respectively.

It is worth noting that Chang'an, which has suffered from the integration of Hafei and Changhe in recent years, has continued to shrink its market share.

Statistics from the Gasgoo.com website show that the market share of Changan mini-vehicles has dropped from 37.9% in 2010 to 27.1% in 2012. This lost market was basically “eaten” by SAIC-GM-Wuling, which was in 2010. The market share between the years of 2012 and 2012 increased from 43.6% to 56.1%.

A market analyst pointed out that the continuous shrinkage of Changan's micro-vehicle market share in recent years should be said to be a factor in the internal management of the company. Chang'an's product lines are relatively bloated, and the positioning is relatively vague, and there are many cases of cross-over and overlap between products. This kind of unclear positioning leads to the phenomenon of “brother fights”.

However, Cui Dongshu believes that the decline in the market share of Changan Micro-vehicles from 2011 to 2012 is an objective reality, but now it has obviously recovered. Its new products follow up quickly and its market share has gradually recovered.