With the 1.6G and below displacement model purchase tax preferential policies will expire at the end of the year, next year's auto market trend will become a hot spot of recent attention. On November 27th, the Beijing Business Daily reporter interviewed a number of experts and learned that the small-displacement car purchase tax concessions will be completely withdrawn at the end of the year, which will have a certain impact on the auto market, and it is difficult for the auto market to have high growth next year.
The "China Imported Auto Market Development Research Report (2017-2018)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by SINOMACS predicts that the Chinese auto market will be completely affected by the withdrawal of the preferential tax policy for the purchase of 1.6L and below. Will show a slight growth trend.
According to the "Report", in 2017, the production and sales of domestically produced vehicles grew steadily; the growth rate of commercial vehicles increased significantly year-on-year; the production and sales of passenger vehicles showed a slight growth trend, and the terminal sales pressure was relatively high. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September 2017, automobile production and sales were completed at 20,349,200 units and 20,224,500 units, up 4.8% and 4.5% year-on-year. The production and sales of passenger cars were 17.328 million and 1715.05 million, an increase of 3% and 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than expected. The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.021 million and 3.074 million, an increase of 16% and 17.9% respectively over the same period of the previous year.
The 1.6L and below displacement models have been taxed at 10%. In order to promote the development of new energy vehicles and small-displacement vehicles, the Ministry of Finance announced at the end of 2015 that the preferential policies for the purchase of 1.6L and below displacement models have been reduced by half. % levy a tax on acquisition. However, starting in 2017, the purchase tax on the purchase of 1.6L and below displacement models will be adjusted back to 7.5%. According to the new policy, from January 1, 2018, the purchase tax will be restored to 10%.
The Beijing Business Daily reporter learned that after the 2011-2012 purchase tax policy was withdrawn, the growth rate of the automobile market dropped from 39% to 9%. In this regard, many dealers are also worried about whether the growth rate of the auto market will see a sharp decline or even a negative growth next year.
Yan Jinghui, an expert in the automotive market, believes that the "Report" will be more accurate for this year's data compilation and for next year's judgment. Although the purchase tax preferential policy will be completely withdrawn next year, it will not have much impact on the auto market, and the auto market will increase next year. There will be no big gap between this year and this year. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that although the auto market will be affected by the exit of the preferential tax policy for purchase next year, the situation in 2011 will not reappear. The impact of the purchase tax exit on the auto market next year will not be too great. The growth rate of the automobile market is around 4%.
In addition, the "Report" shows that China's imported auto market is characterized by rapid rebound in imports, continuous replenishment of inventories, weak recovery of terminal sales, and reasonable inventory levels of dealers. According to incomplete statistics, there are 43 imported new cars in the Chinese market from the fourth quarter of 2017 to 2018. Among them, the new models of “quantity sales†are limited, which has limited sales of the overall imported car market.
The "Report" predicts that the supply and demand of China's imported auto market will be basically balanced in 2018. The replenishment of the inventory cycle will end, and the customs import volume and sales volume will show a single-digit growth trend. The scale of the parallel imported automobile market will further expand and the proportion will continue to increase.
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