I. The spread of the international financial crisis and the extension of delay will lead to a decrease in the demand for heavy trucks at home and abroad.

The slowdown in the Chinese economy brought about by the spread of the international financial crisis and the postponement of delays is expected to slow down the demand for heavy trucks this year. The deterioration of the international economic environment has reduced the demand for heavy truck importing countries. With the slowdown of economic growth, the reduction in the demand for cargo transportation and the decrease in exports will inevitably lead to the decline in the transport of export goods; secondly, the shrinking of domestic consumer demand will cause the decline of domestic cargo transportation. These two non-use factors will further cause the shrinking of logistics, decrease of transport capacity and decline of freight rates, which will aggravate the “supply exceeds demand” situation in the freight market, making the heavy truck market fall into a “severe winter” of sustained downturn and many heavy truck manufacturing. Last year, the company's sales were not as expected, and some manufacturers had temporarily suspended production and reduced production.

Second, Renminbi or re-appreciation or devaluation Influence on heavy trucks

With the central government’s economic regulation, all commercial banks have adjusted the interest rate of RMB deposits on a wave-by-round basis to stimulate and stimulate the domestic consumer market. This may give us a signal that the renminbi may have room for devaluation, but it is unlikely that it will continue to appreciate.

Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the appreciation of the renminbi for China's economic development: 1. China's GDP has increased its international status and increased national tax revenue; 2. China's imports are favorable but not conducive to China's exports. Decline in exports may increase domestic employment pressure and exacerbate low income. The burden of expenditure on the group and speculation in the market may lead to deflation; 2. The decrease in the cost of import-dependent manufacturers of raw materials will help balance the balance of payments in China and change the status quo of double surpluses; 3. The ability of domestic enterprises to invest abroad will increase, but attract The advantages of overseas investment have weakened; 4. The profitability of foreign-invested enterprises in China has increased, and the sale of Chinese assets has been more cost-effective; 5. The pressure on debt-servicing and foreign-subsidiary debts has eased, and industries relying solely on price advantages have been affected...

As the strength of China's heavy-duty truck exports, the appreciation of the renminbi will inevitably have a greater impact on the overseas sales of Chinese heavy-duty truck companies. This has made it difficult for all heavy truck companies to use the international market to maintain a relatively high production and sales rate. The appreciation of the renminbi If the renminbi continues to appreciate in 2009, this will greatly weaken the overseas competitiveness of the heavy truck companies. If it is not devaluation, the export volume of cars and export profits may usher in a Jedi rebound.

Third, the impact of changes in oil prices on the impact of heavy trucks

The introduction of the fuel tax will continuously expose the relative fuel economy advantages of heavy trucks. It will effectively control the use of restrained vehicles and accelerate the renewal of old vehicles and promote the growth of the tractor market. However, if the price of tax-inclusive oil gradually increases in the future, the burden on users of heavy trucks will increase substantially. Ascending, less traffic, lower freight rates, lower operating income, lower operational efficiency, and old customers and vehicles reporting stoppages, resulting in a short-term recession in the transportation industry. This may inhibit the consumption of heavy trucks, and it will also lead to a decline in demand and potential customer purchasing power. Will be affected.

Fourth, "Large hydrolysis can not be near thirsty" to stimulate domestic demand

At the end of 2008, the central government introduced a series of measures to stimulate domestic demand in order to maintain the economic growth rate. These measures are mainly implemented in the form of fixed assets investment. This has a direct or indirect effect on the automotive industry. "Active role" and "promoting effect".

In 2009, the leveraging of “7 trillion yuan” in infrastructure investment will bring more market demand for heavy trucks, and the market is expected to increase significantly in terms of domestic demand. It is estimated that there will be a substantial increase in dump trucks and road transport vehicles. The optimism is expected to increase the total demand by 200,000 vehicles.

The newly-built railway construction project, which is one of the infrastructure investment measures of “7 trillion yuan to stimulate domestic demand”, will have a certain follow-up to the demand effect of the heavy-duty truck market. The expectation of the increase in the demand for railway products to drive heavy-duty trucks in the first half of this year is unlikely. Big. Mr. Yuan Xuehui, the author's friend and marketer of heavy trucks, recently pointed out that in the second half of the year, with the investment proposal, approval, and approval, and funds are in place, the investment unit or department needs to carry out a preliminary process for the project. This process needs to be derived after the project starts. The various needs of suppliers, the supply side also needs a certain reaction time, and the effect is especially reflected in the need to pull heavy trucks for a long period of time.

Fifth, the toll collection and cancellation of toll stations on Grade 2 highways are relatively good for heavy trucks.

With the official implementation of the New Year's Day oil product tax reform from 2009, as one of the important components of the reform, the revocation of the government’s repayment of the toll stations of Class 2 highways has begun. The cancellation of the government's repayment of second-grade highway tolls will be revoked in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. According to statistics from the Ministry of Communications, secondary roads currently account for 42% of the national road network. At present, most of the heavy-duty trucks are running on secondary roads in rural areas. Therefore, the cancellation of secondary highway toll stations is a major positive news for heavy trucks. However, the author fears that the revocation of the toll stations for the repayment of Class 2 highways by various local governments will continue for a long time, and will be degenerated and mutated. "There are policies and countermeasures" are the biggest features of China.

At the same time, the weight-based charging policy will be comprehensive in 2009. At present, weight-based tolls will be imposed on over 95% of highways and provincial highways throughout the country. The implementation of the toll-by-weight policy in 2009 has continued to expand. In 2010, weight-based tolls will be implemented across the country. "Earth-related tolls" is an important means of managing overload, so that the regulations block users from relying on overload to make money, and directly stimulate the demand for heavy trucks.

six. The increase in the total volume of road freight increases the demand for heavy trucks

Since 2000, China's road freight volume and total turnover have increased significantly. The total freight volume in China has been growing at an annual rate of over 10%, and it has also brought about 10% more growth in the heavy truck market. As the average transport distance of vehicles continues to increase and the highway mileage continues to increase, the demand for road transport vehicles will continue to grow in 2009, and the growth rate is expected to reach around 10%. It is expected that the national heavy-duty truck market will hold approximately 3 million units in 2009. If calculated in terms of the static capacity of its absolute positive proportion, it is expected that the growth rate of the heavy-duty truck market in 2009 will be about 10%, with a total sales volume of approximately 600,000 vehicles.

In 2010, the total length of roads nationwide reached 2.3 million kilometers, the mileage of highways throughout the country reached 65,000 kilometers, the length of secondary roads and above reached 450,000 kilometers, and the county-township roads reached 1.8 million kilometers. Road transport trucks include ordinary trucks, road tractors, and special vehicles for transportation. The direct demand for road transport vehicles derives from the total domestic freight index.

Heavy truck sales clearly have a close relationship with road freight rates and fuel prices: When the transport capacity is greater than the transport capacity, the road freight rate will drop, and the transportation market will reduce the demand for trucks accordingly; when the transport capacity is less than the transport volume, the highway The freight rate will rise accordingly, and the demand for trucks will increase. If there is a serious surplus of supply capacity, new users who are preparing to enter the freight market will generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude when entering the market, postpone the purchase plan of vehicles, and postpone the purchase time of vehicles, which will cause new market demand to be almost zero. If freight rates do not rise, fuel prices soar and labor costs continue to increase, the profitability of transport companies will become smaller and thinner. The decline in user income tends to have a strong conduction and demonstration effect in the vehicle market. Through this conduction and demonstration effect, new demand in the vehicle market will be reduced.

Seventh, production capacity exceeds demand, and competition is fiercer.

From the end of 2005 to the last four years of 2008, the heavy-duty truck market has experienced a “blowout” and the demand has increased dramatically. Each heavy-duty truck company has significantly expanded its production capacity, overestimated the market demand and lack of resilience to changes in the excessively fast market. Excess production capacity of production enterprises will further increase competition in the heavy truck market in 2009.

VIII. Analysis of the development trend of high-tech and high-value-added products for heavy-duty trucks

1. The application of integrated technologies such as aircraft, electricity, gas, liquid and microelectronics, and GPS technology on heavy trucks will greatly increase the added value and scientific and technological content of heavy truck products. The rapid development of electronic technology and the large number of applications make the safety of heavy-duty trucks more intelligent. The operating conditions of major assemblies have been demonstrated by electronic components. Operating systems are mostly handled automatically and harmoniously by computers.

2. The appearance of the development of the European system In the future, in the new model of the heavy truck, it will continue to absorb fashionable elements with popular features, and creatively design new models that meet their own characteristics, highlighting their own brand characteristics. Such as the introduction of Dongfeng Tianlong, China Heavy Duty Truck HOWO-A7 series products.

3. Humanization, safety, and development trend of energy conservation and environmental protection The design of the cab for passenger car design is increasingly humanized, providing the driver with a comfortable working environment. In addition to basic safety measures such as parking and service brakes, through the provision of a full-featured monitoring system, rollover prevention system, and adopting three independent braking systems of electronic control, hydraulic pressure, and mechanical power, the safety and reliability of the vehicle have been greatly improved. Energy-saving and emission-reduction make the heavy-duty engine change from a mechanical engine to an electronic engine. Electronically controlled high-pressure common-rail has become the mainstream in the technology route.

4. High-speed, increased fuel economy, heavy-duty, high-power, multi-axis, lightweight, single-stage bridge, multi-speed, high speed ratio, special purpose and containerization are the trends for the development of heavy-duty trucks in 2009.

From the statistical data in recent years, the product structure of the heavy-duty diesel engine industry in the past few years was mainly 7-8 liters, and the engine power was mostly below 205 kW (280 ps), and the engine power was mostly 280-... There is a trend towards 400ps high power development. The transmission develops in the direction of multi-gear and high-torque with small gaps between gears. Transmissions with multiple gears and a wide range of speed ratios improve the vehicle's dynamic performance, fuel economy, and shift smoothness, and improve the vehicle's fuel economy. Lightweight use of new technologies, new materials will replace some parts of the car, in order to reduce the weight of the car, which is of great benefit to the vehicle's fuel economy, vehicle control stability, collision safety and to prevent over-limit overload. In addition, special car classification is more refined. With the increasing demand for special vehicles such as dump trucks, cement mixers, bulk cement trucks, tankers, and pump trucks, the special-purpose vehicle market will become a must-win for all manufacturers.

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