According to the analysis of IHS, a world-renowned auto consulting organization, multinational auto companies are desperate to expand their production capacity in China. The driving force is mainly from three aspects: First, the SUV, cross-border models, entry and mid-end luxury car market are growing rapidly and steadily. Second, with the gradual relaxation of the new government financial regulation, China's auto finance is expected to grow by 25% annually in the next five years. Third, China's huge population base and the thawing of the city's second-child policy will enable China to maintain its position as the world's number one automobile production and sales country for a long time.
At the end of the year, the US media and institutions have recently announced that the US car sales this year is expected to reach 16.4 million. In October, the US light vehicle sales volume was 1.27 million units, the highest level since 2004. Light vehicles in the United States refer to the general category of passenger vehicles including pickup trucks.
Driven by the decline in international oil prices, US SUV and cross-border vehicle sales increased by 14% in October, and full-size pickups increased by 6%. According to Autonews.com, US conventional gasoline prices fell to their lowest level since December 2010, dropping an average of 18 cents to $3.08 per gallon per gallon.
According to the brand or manufacturer ranking, the top three car sales in the US market from January to November this year were Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, which were 2,167,100, 1,848,500 and 1,833,000, respectively, an increase of -1%, 3%, and 5. %. The fourth and fifth sales figures were Hyundai and JEEP, which were 661,200 and 629,000 respectively, up 1% and 44% year-on-year. Later, Honda and Nissan, sales of 1,253,500 and 1,164,200 vehicles, an increase of 1% and 12%. Volkswagen sold 329,900 units, an increase of -11% year-on-year, even lower than Dodge (527,700 units) and Subaru (463,700 units).
In the luxury car camp, the top three sales in the same period were BMW (BMW only), Mercedes-Benz and Lexus, which were 298,200, 296,300 and 271,500, an increase of 10%, 16% and 14% respectively. Audi and Cadillac sold 162,700 units and 154,600 units in the same period, up 15% and -6% year-on-year.
The above data basically reflects the competitive situation in the US auto market. In the same period, in addition to Japanese cars, the performance of other multinational car companies in China is also very beautiful, but the US media believes that China's economic growth is slowing down (the recent central bank interest rate cut is obviously a signal of concern for economic downturn), car capacity utilization rate It is also continuing to fall, and the expansion of multinational auto companies in China should be cautious.
But multinational car companies seem to be not worried about this. From January to November this year, Volkswagen, GM, Ford, and Toyota sold 2.25 million units (only Volkswagen brand), 3.188 million units, 1,007,800 units, and 900,000 units, up 11.5%, 20%, and 10% year-on-year. 12.2%. During the same period, the three major German giants have maintained double-digit growth, Audi is far ahead, sales exceeded 500,000.
According to US media reports, GM has planned to invest 14 billion US dollars in China in 2014~2018, and build 5 new factories. The future target is to sell 5 million vehicles a year. Ford added 300,000 units of capacity in the Chongqing joint venture this year and will add 250,000 units in Hangzhou next year. Fiat-Chrysler is building a second factory in Guangzhou, and the domestic JEEP will be officially put into production next year. Its sales target in China in 2018 is 850,000 units, compared with only 130,000 units sold last year.
What is the strength of the "three big" in the United States (still using the original formulation for the convenience of consumers) in the Chinese market? According to data provided by IHS, a world-renowned automotive consultancy, China's vehicle capacity utilization rate was 91% in 2008, and then it has been declining year by year. It is expected to fall to 68% in 2015 and to remain at 70% by 2020. The US car capacity utilization rate was 69% in 2010, and then it has risen year by year. It is expected to reach 95% in 2015 and above 90% by 2020. China's automobile capacity utilization rate is in a reverse trend with the United States. An important reason is that since the global financial crisis in 2008, the US “three big” has greatly reduced local production capacity, but it has expanded wildly in China along with other multinational auto companies. As a result, the sales of foreign brands have been rising year after year, and the Japanese cars were only due to the bad luck of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after September 2012. In 2014, the capacity utilization rate of foreign brands in China reached an average of 85%, while the average brand was only 65%. In other words, foreign brands have been grabbing the market share of their own brands, and the overall situation of capacity utilization has little to do with them. On the contrary, Ford and Volkswagen are complaining that their production capacity in China is tight, otherwise sales can still reach new heights!
According to IHS analysis, multinational auto companies are desperate to expand their production capacity in China. The driving force is mainly from three aspects:
First, the SUV, crossover models, entry and mid-end luxury car market is growing rapidly and steadily, and this momentum will continue for many years. Especially for luxury cars, it is estimated that by 2020, China's sales will reach 2.42 million, becoming the world's largest luxury car market, when the United States is only 2 million.
Second, in 2013, the proportion of Chinese consumer loans to buy cars was only 20%, compared with 85% in the United States. This gap is not a simple consumer concept, but the result of China's related financial regulation and non-marketization of interest rates. With the gradual relaxation of the new government financial regulation, it is expected that China's auto finance will achieve a 25% annual growth in the next five years, which will effectively promote the growth of automobile sales.
Third, China's huge population base and the thawing of the city's second-child policy will enable China to maintain its position as the world's number one automobile production and sales country for a long time. It is predicted that by 2026, China's annual sales of automobiles will reach 35.22 million units. In the same year, US auto sales can only be maintained at the scale of 16 to 17 million units this year. Of course, the premise is that the Chinese economy cannot be subject to large fluctuations.
The analytical data of HIS is indeed convincing, and it will certainly encourage multinational auto companies to accelerate their long-term layout in the Chinese market. Unfortunately, China's own brands may not be happy. The market share and profit margin of Great Wall, Geely and BYD, the leading companies in this camp, are declining. Self-owned brand technology is not as good as foreign brands, and competitiveness has not been able to go up, especially in the low-end market, which should be reviewed. Should the relevant parties review?

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