Opportunities outweigh challenges 2016 China's equipment industry will show an intelligent development trend

Opportunities outweigh challenges 2016 China's equipment industry will show an intelligent development trend

Development trend (1): Downstream pressure of equipment industry reduces production and export growth rate

Since 2015, the economic recovery of developed countries has been slow, the expansion of emerging economies is weak, and the influence of non-economic factors such as geopolitics still exists. China's economy is in the difficult process of transforming old and new kinetic energy. Although the overall trend of economic operation has not changed, but due to the downward fluctuations of major industries such as automobiles and the sluggish demand, the growth rate of China's equipment industry has continued to be low in the first eight months. Hey. In September and October, the automobile and other industries rebounded rapidly, and the growth rate of the equipment industry also stabilized. From January to October, the industrial added value of equipment manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year, lower than the national industrial level, which was less than half of the same period in 2014. It is expected that the growth rate of China's equipment industry will continue to rise throughout the year, but under the pressure of shrinking investment demand and foreign trade situation, the rebound rate is limited. The annual growth rate in 2015 is about 5.5%. In terms of exports, the growth rate of export delivery value from January to October showed a month-on-month decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.15%. The decline in October was slightly reduced, down 4.32% year-on-year. It is expected that the export situation will remain severe throughout the year, and the cumulative export delivery value will decrease by about 2.5%.

In 2016, under the stimulus of a series of policies in the “13th Five-Year Plan”, the downward pressure on China's equipment industry will be reduced. Although the international economic situation is still grim, with the gradual deep implementation and accelerated implementation of China's three major regional development strategies, medium and long-term manufacturing and strong country construction strategies, and accelerated international production capacity and equipment manufacturing cooperation, new growth points, growth poles, and growth belts gradually Formed, the domestic economy will maintain medium-to-high-speed growth. Driven by this, China's equipment industry will accelerate its development in 2016, and the growth rate of industrial added value will accelerate and rebound, and it is expected to remain at around 7% throughout the year. On the export side, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China will cultivate the development of the equipment industry as a new export-oriented industry. At the same time, due to the decline in the export base in 2015, the export growth rate of China's equipment products is expected to accelerate in 2016, and the export delivery value will be achieved year-on-year. Growth, it is estimated that the cumulative increase for the whole year is around 5%.

The growth rate of the automobile industry continues to pick up and stabilize. Since 2015, China's auto industry has accelerated its transformation. The growth rate of production and sales in the first seven months has continued to decline, and the downward pressure on the industry has continued to increase. In August, as the implementation of the national policy began to appear and the new 1.6-liter and below passenger vehicle purchase tax halved, the decline in the growth rate of automobile production and sales gradually decreased, and the double warming in October was positive. From January to October, the production and sales of 19,280,300 vehicles and 19,278,100 vehicles, an increase of 0.02% and 1.51%, a significant slowdown compared with the same period of last year, but the monthly warming trend is very obvious. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars grew rapidly. In October, production and sales were 1,89,700 and 1,936,900 respectively, up 8.1% and 13.3% respectively. The market share of self-owned brand passenger vehicles maintained growth. From January to October, sales reached 6,576,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. The proportion of sales of passenger vehicles increased by 3.2 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise. From January to October, the cumulative production of 181,225 vehicles and sales of 171,145 vehicles increased by 2.7 times and 2.9 times respectively. It is expected that under the policy push, the production and sales of automobiles will continue to recover rapidly during the year, and the growth rate of automobile production and sales will reach 4% and 3% throughout the year.

In 2016, affected by the growth of macroeconomic growth and favorable policies, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will maintain a relatively fast recovery. However, the downward pressure on economic growth brought about by economic restructuring still exists. Due to the adverse factors of environmental protection and limited purchase restrictions, the space for car recovery is limited. It is expected that the growth rate of automobile production and sales will gradually stabilize in the whole year, and the growth rate will remain at around 7%. . As the country attaches importance to the strategy of new energy vehicles and continues to implement multiple policies, and local governments promote the application of new energy vehicles to control smog and energy conservation and emission reduction, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will continue to rise, driving technological innovation and autonomy in the automotive industry. Brand cars are accelerating. At the same time, the intelligent network-linked cars and unmanned vehicles and new fuel cell vehicles promoted by the "Internet" will also make new breakthroughs in the "13th Five-Year Plan".

Development trend (2): The machinery industry continues to differentiate and the ship industry gradually stabilizes and rebounds

The machinery industry continues to differentiate. Since 2015, China's machinery industry has faced great difficulties in its operation. The growth rate of major indicators has hit a new low, and the overall trend has been sluggish, and some industries have shown signs of differentiation. From January to October, the added value of general equipment manufacturing increased by 3.2% year-on-year, special equipment manufacturing increased by 3.5%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 7.3%, and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 5.7%. The output of major general mechanical products such as pumps, gears, gas compressors and fans all showed different degrees of decline; the output of gold cutting machine tools decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, of which the output of CNC metal cutting machine tools decreased by 9.8% and the metal forming machine tools decreased by 6%; The output of construction machinery declined across the board. The output of excavators and loaders decreased by 24.5% and 28.9% respectively. The output of traditional power generation equipment such as thermal power and wind power decreased by a large margin, but the output of wind turbines increased by 15.8% year-on-year; the output of large tractors increased by 32.3. %, medium-sized tractors increased by 7.2%, but the output of small tractors decreased by 15.5%.

In 2016, uncertain factors affecting the economic operation of the industry still exist, and the machinery industry will still be severely tested. However, with the gradual implementation of the national macro-control policies, the macroeconomic situation has gradually improved, the downward trend of the machinery industry will gradually stabilize, and the positive factors of industry development are also accumulating, and some enterprises, industries and regions with earlier structural adjustments start earlier. Will speed up the recovery. At the same time, some machinery industries will continue to grow and differentiate: traditional investment products such as construction machinery, heavy machinery, mining machinery, petrochemical equipment, conventional power generation equipment, and production capacity of machine tools, AC motors, low-voltage electrical appliances, wire and cable, small and medium-sized general agricultural machinery products, etc. Relatively surplus industries will continue to decline. New agricultural machinery, energy conservation and environmental protection equipment, cultural relics protection equipment, and modern logistics equipment supported by the state will accelerate growth.

The shipbuilding industry will gradually improve. In 2015, due to the downturn in the global shipping market, the pressure on ships and offshore construction was relatively high. Although China's shipbuilding completion volume has stabilized and rebounded at the beginning of the year, the new orders for ships have continued to decline sharply in the previous year, which has continued to drop sharply year-on-year. As a result, orders for hand-held ships have been negatively growing since March, and the three major indicators have shown a rise and fall. Development trend. Coupled with the continued low price of new ships, shipbuilding companies have difficulties in delivering ships and financing difficulties, and economic benefits have declined. The shipbuilding industry is facing a severe situation. From January to October, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 32.87 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The new ship's orders were 20.38 million DWT, down 62.1% year-on-year. As of the end of October, orders for hand-held ships were 13.201 million DWT, down 14% year-on-year. The key monitoring of the total industrial output value and operating income of shipbuilding enterprises maintained steady growth, and the export delivery value decreased. At the same time, the offshore engineering equipment market has also shrunk to a large extent.

In 2016, the new round of major adjustments in the international shipping market continued to deepen. The characteristics of the industrial adjustment cycle continued to emerge, and there was some trend change in the demand structure. The demand for conventional ship types such as bulk carriers remained weak, and the demand for offshore engineering equipment and high-tech ships will stabilize. Pick up. At the same time, due to the impact of ship energy efficiency and higher emission standards, new energy-saving and environmentally-friendly bulk carriers, container ships and oil tankers are expected to become the main market demand. LNG ships and LPG ships will maintain strong demand, car transport vessels, ocean fishing vessels, luxury. Demand growth, such as cruise ships, will be evident. On the whole, due to the base level in 2015 and the “13th Five-Year Plan” environment, the growth rate of shipbuilding completions will continue to stabilize and rebound in 2016. The decline in new orders will be significantly reduced year-on-year, and the decline in hand-held orders will further narrow. .

Development trend (3): Intelligent manufacturing continues to accelerate the development of equipment innovation

Intelligent manufacturing continues to accelerate development. Since 2015, smart manufacturing has received a policy emphasis. The "Made in China 2025" and "Internet" initiatives focused on smart manufacturing, and proposed to vigorously develop smart manufacturing, carry out pilot demonstrations of smart manufacturing, implement major projects of intelligent manufacturing, and focus on promoting intelligent manufacturing processes. Sino-German Smart Manufacturing and Industry 4.0 cooperation entered a practical stage, and the regular working mechanism was formally established. Rapid development of new business models represented by smart factories, digital workshops, additive manufacturing technology applications and large-scale personalized customization, network collaborative development, online monitoring, remote diagnosis and cloud services, industrial robots, service robots, new sensors The application of smart instruments and control systems, wearable devices, smart home appliances, smart grids and other intelligent equipment and products continues to expand, and the scale of demand is rapidly expanding.

In 2016, with the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” to raise the intelligent manufacturing to a new height, the smart manufacturing promotion route in various fields will be further clarified, and the Sino-German cooperation will further deepen, the country will build an intelligent manufacturing industry ecology that is open, shared and collaborative. Promote intelligent upgrading of production equipment, process optimization and transformation, basic data sharing, and breakthrough of key intelligent equipment and products and core components to promote next-generation information and communication technology, equipment, energy conservation and new energy vehicles, power equipment, agricultural machinery and equipment, and new materials. Industries such as biomedicine and high-performance medical devices continue to grow and develop, and a new manufacturing system is gradually formed. And further rely on the intelligent manufacturing industry format and development model to foster new growth points in the industry.

The development of equipment innovation has seen new developments. In 2015, in response to changes in domestic and international market demand, the equipment manufacturing industry continued to transform and upgrade, and equipment development achieved remarkable results. The output value of equipment manufacturing industry accounted for a gradual increase in the proportion of equipment manufacturing industry. "Made in China 2025" clearly identified the equipment innovation project as one of the five projects promoted by the government, and proposed to organize the implementation of large aircraft, aero engines and gas turbines, civil aerospace, intelligent green trains, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, offshore engineering equipment and high A number of innovative and industrialized special projects and major projects such as technical ships, smart grid complete sets of equipment, CNC machine tools, nuclear power equipment, and medical equipment. The purpose is to pool resources, make overall progress, break through bottlenecks, improve innovation and development capabilities and international competitiveness, and seize the commanding heights of competition.

In 2016, the development of equipment innovation has become the main trend of future manufacturing development. China will deeply implement the innovation-driven development strategy, focus on building a new engine and supporting platform, and accelerate the cultivation of new driving force for economic growth. With science and technology innovation as the core, public service platform as the support, and major special projects as the starting point, the development of equipment innovation with the goal of industrial application is accelerated, and a number of landmark and driving key products and major equipment will accelerate the layout. The level of independent design and system integration, the development level of core components, and the level of industrial innovation have been continuously enhanced. A group of first (sets) equipment will be applied and piloted in the fields of national economic construction, social production and life, and national defense construction. The industrial development path and model will make breakthroughs, drive the adjustment and transformation of traditional industrial structure, and build China. The new competitive advantages of the industry and the construction of a manufacturing power have laid a more solid foundation.

There is a problem: domestic effective demand continues to be sluggish, production and management of enterprises are still difficult

Domestic effective demand continues to be sluggish. Affected by weak domestic and international demand, orders for equipment products have generally decreased, market competition has become more intense, and the overall price level has continued the downward trend in recent years. From January to September 2015, the cumulative price of equipment products decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the decline further expanded. The overall environment of the whole society is not conducive to the development of the real economy, and the willingness to invest in enterprises is relatively weak. From January to October, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 447.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the growth rate continued to fall. Among them, the manufacturing investment was 1,484.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%; the equipment manufacturing investment was 594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and the growth rate was also 0.3 percentage points higher than that of January-September, but the national industrial new construction project plans total investment. At the same time, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry in August, September and October was 49.7%, 49.8%, and 49.8%, respectively, which was lower than 50% for three consecutive months. Therefore, in 2016, we still need to pay attention to the problem of low domestic effective demand in China's equipment manufacturing industry.

Exports still face some pressure. The current international economic recovery is still tortuous. The international market demand is still weak. From the perspective of manufacturing PMI, the US is still at the bottom. Although Europe and Japan have recently stabilized their momentum, the expansion is weak and the foundation is not solid. . The competition among industries in various countries is still fierce. The pressure of trade protection faced by China in the international market is still relatively large. The influence of non-economic factors such as geopolitics still exists, and the negative factors that inhibit the growth of China's foreign trade continue. The tendency of equipment manufacturing enterprises to encounter trade barriers such as technical, green environmental protection and standards has increased. At the same time, from the perspective of manufacturing export orders, since October 2014, the export order index has been below 50%, and has shown a downward trend. In October 2015, it was 47.4%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. Although domestic policies are expected to accelerate the growth of China's export of equipment and products, the foreign environmental situation will still exert greater pressure on exports.

Enterprise production and operation is still difficult. First, the cost pressure increases and the profit margin decreases. From January to September 2015, the main business income of equipment industry enterprises increased by 3.22% year-on-year, but the main business cost increased by 3.78% year-on-year, the management fee increased by 6.69%, and the accounts receivable increased by 6.5% year-on-year, resulting in total corporate profits. The year-on-year decrease of 0.03%, and the factor cost, environmental cost, and social burden faced by enterprises are increasing. Second, the inventory of finished products rose month by month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.83% from January to September. Third, financing pressures continue to increase. Although the central bank has repeatedly lowered the RRR and cut interest rates this year, banks are reluctant to lend to loans and some enterprises are reluctant to lend. The financing of construction machinery, ships and other industries generally reflects the difficulty of financing, high loan costs, and manufacturer guarantees. The problems of heavy financing burden are more prominent. At present, many people's financing costs for shipbuilding enterprises have reached 8% to 12%, and enterprises have difficulties in financing, which has led to the loss of many new ship orders. In 2016, the production and operation of China's equipment industry enterprises will still face greater difficulties.

Some industries urgently need to accelerate structural adjustment. Since 2015, some industries in China's equipment manufacturing industry have achieved rapid growth through structural adjustment, but there are still some industries with low-end overcapacity and vicious competition. Under the environmental situation of “13th Five-Year Plan” focusing on promoting intelligent manufacturing and equipment development, these industries urgently need to accelerate structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. In China, as one of the main industries in the field of intelligent manufacturing, industrial robots mainly use low-end products such as handling and loading and unloading robots, mostly three-axis and four-axis robots, which are used in the fields of automobile manufacturing and welding. The industrial robot market with shafts or above is mainly occupied by Japanese and European and American companies. Due to the low barriers to entry in the industry, many companies have blindly invested, assembled everywhere, and low-level redundant construction, and there has been a tendency for overcapacity in emerging industries. Among more than 40 parks and more than 800 enterprises in the country, they can truly achieve self-manufacturing and profitability. enterprise.

Countermeasure suggestion: Optimize industrial layout and improve the level of intelligent manufacturing

Strengthen independent innovation and improve industry competitiveness. First, in accordance with the "Made in China 2025" and other deployments and requirements, accelerate the organization and implementation of the National Manufacturing Innovation Center construction project, equipment innovation project, industrial strong foundation project, green manufacturing engineering, etc., and start the construction of a number of national innovation centers in key equipment manufacturing fields, The National Laboratory will tackle key functional technologies, basic common technologies, and integrated innovation capabilities to promote pilot demonstration applications. Second, continue to organize and implement special science and technology projects and research or industrialization projects in the field of equipment, and demonstrate a number of new growth industry support projects such as robots and 3D printing, and guide enterprises to increase investment in research and development and break through technological bottlenecks. The third is to speed up the formulation and promotion of innovative application policies such as the first set of major technical equipment insurance compensation mechanisms, and encourage manufacturing companies to use the departments to jointly carry out research and development and promote the application of research and development results. Fourth, encourage the cooperation between industry, academia and research to strengthen cooperation, promote the construction of industrial technology innovation alliances, accelerate the establishment of industrial common technology platforms, industry testing and testing service platforms, and strengthen the cultivation of innovative and applied talents.

Accelerate the development of intelligent manufacturing. First, accelerate the pilot demonstration of intelligent manufacturing, promote the extensive application of intelligent manufacturing in production process, enterprise management and service, energy management, logistics, etc., accelerate the development of a number of intelligent equipment and products, and promote the integrated application of intelligent manufacturing production mode. The second is to accelerate the organization and implementation of intelligent manufacturing engineering, develop intelligent products and self-controllable intelligent devices and achieve industrialization, build smart factories and digital workshops in key areas, establish intelligent manufacturing standard systems and information security systems, and build intelligent manufacturing network system platforms. . The third is to accelerate the development of integrated innovation and engineering applications of the integration of next-generation information technology and manufacturing equipment such as industrial cloud and Internet, and build a cooperation platform to accelerate the intelligentization and service transformation of manufacturing industries. The fourth is to accelerate the promotion of Sino-German smart manufacturing cooperation and promote the development of intelligent manufacturing in various fields.

Actively promote enterprises to explore domestic and foreign markets. First, implement various “steady growth” measures, and take multiple measures to create a good domestic market demand environment for equipment manufacturing enterprises. Second, accelerate the implementation of the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Promoting International Capacity and Equipment Manufacturing Cooperation", strengthen inter-departmental policy exchanges and cooperation, jointly promote the construction of overseas economic and trade zones, improve the cooperation platform for government and enterprise, and continue to promote the equipment manufacturing industry to go global. Third, support and guide domestic superior equipment enterprises to focus on the countries and regions along the “Belt and Road”. The opportunity is greater than the challenge. In 2016, China's equipment industry will be in an intelligent development trend, and promote rail transit equipment, power equipment, petrochemical metallurgical equipment, automobiles and engineering. Project cooperation in the fields of machinery, agricultural machinery, aviation equipment, ships and offshore engineering equipment.

Promote structural adjustment and optimize industrial layout. The first is to optimize the product structure. Encourage the use of high-tech transformation to upgrade the traditional equipment manufacturing industry, and accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging advanced equipment manufacturing industries such as equipment, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy vehicles. The second is to optimize the organizational structure. Focusing on key industries such as automobiles and ships, we will vigorously promote mergers and acquisitions and resource integration, increase industrial concentration in key industries, and build large-scale enterprise groups with strong core competitiveness and international management capabilities; around industrial robots and civilian drones. Emerging industries such as additive manufacturing, strengthen standardization and industry access policy formulation, and standardize industry development and market competition. The third is to optimize the spatial layout and create a number of demonstration bases with good growth, industrial level, leading enterprises, and complete clusters of industrialization, and build an internationally renowned equipment manufacturing industry cluster.

In 2016, China's equipment industry will accelerate its development. The growth rate of industrial added value is expected to remain at 7%, and the cumulative increase in export delivery value is around 5%.

(Original title: Opportunity is greater than the challenge 2016 China's equipment industry will be intelligent development trend)