Overall, in 2007 China's rubber supply and demand relationship can be roughly balanced, but due to the end of the global super bull market, the simultaneous slowdown of the US-China economic growth, and the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the price increases may persist for several years. End. On the other hand, uncertainties such as further chaos in the Middle East, serious natural disasters, and staged bottom support after a deep fall in prices will also release strong upward market momentum. Under such circumstances, the domestic and foreign speculative funds will continue to trigger sharp fluctuations in market prices.
Slightly higher supply level From the supply side, the high price will stimulate rubber mulching enthusiasm. If serious natural disasters do not occur, it is expected that the country's (including privately-owned, the same below) natural rubber production can be stabilized at about 600,000 tons in 2007, which is the same as last year or has increased.
In recent years, under the guidance of strong demand, China's synthetic rubber production has maintained a rapid growth rate of more than 10%. There will be no major change in this situation in 2007. It is estimated that the annual output of synthetic rubber will exceed 2 million tons, an increase of more than 10%.
Overseas imports have always been a major aspect of China's rubber supply. According to the demand calculation, the import volume of natural rubber in the new year should not be less than 1.7 million tons, and the import volume of synthetic rubber should not be less than 1.4 million tons, which should exceed 10% year-on-year. Otherwise, there will be a tight supply situation.
In 2006, domestic rubber inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years. Among them, the dominant stocks of the Shanghai Futures Exchange exceeded 50,000 tons, and inventory in Hainan and Yunnan production regions was also significantly higher than that of the previous year. These inventory will be carried forward this year to become available resources.
In summary, it is expected that the availability of Chinese rubber in 2007 will be closer to 6 million tons, of which the new resources will reach 5.8 million tons, or even more, an increase of more than 9% over the previous year. In the year of new rubber resources, natural rubber is about 2.3 million tons, and synthetic rubber is more than 3.4 million tons.
Demand growth slows From the demand side, the pattern of rubber consumption growth in the new year remains unchanged, but the intensity has weakened. On the one hand, the rising cycle of China's economic growth in 2007 has not yet ended. China is still in the period of heavy chemical industry. The output of various types of motor vehicles continues to increase, and the length of highway transportation continues to increase. As a result, the consumption of rubber continues to increase. On the other hand, economic growth in both China and the United States will slow down in 2007 due to the two major engines that are currently driving global economic growth. The authoritative department predicts that the growth rate of China's economy will fall by about 2 percentage points in 2007, and the simultaneous deceleration of domestic and foreign economies will allow the consumption of rubber in China (including exports of rubber products) to increase despite the growth in the new year. It will fall back.
In addition, the "blowout" growth in the consumption of automotive and other plastic products is difficult to reproduce. In 2006, China's auto output increased by more than 20%, and reached 40% in individual months. In 2007, this kind of strong growth was hard to reproduce, and the growth of tires and other rubber products also fell.
Affected by the overall demand, it is expected that in 2007 China's rubber consumption will exceed 5.7 million tons, an increase of no less than 10% year-on-year, which is a drop from the 2006 level of growth. The consumption of natural rubber will reach or exceed 2.2 million tons, and the relationship between supply and demand will be roughly flat and slightly loose.
The end of the super bull market In the new year, the operating environment of the Chinese rubber market will undergo a major change, and the situation in which the prices of the Chinese rubber market will continue to rise for many years may end in 2007. The trend of the whole year will be high, low, and volatile.
The main factors ending the rise in the price level of rubber for several years, apart from the shift in market relations from a tight one to a balanced one, from the external environment of the market operation, it still lies in: At present, there are many inventories in Southeast Asia, and there is a lot of pressure on sales. Some agencies predict that oil prices in the international market will drop to below US$50/barrel. If this forecast is realised, the downside drag on the rubber market is self-evident; in 2007, the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise, and the rate of increase is likely to increase. Increase, thereby reducing the cost of imports of various types of rubber; but if the situation in the Middle East is further turmoil in 2007, or a large number of natural rubber production, and the sharp decline in prices triggered a new change in supply and demand, will release a strong upward market push. Under such circumstances, the domestic and foreign speculative funds have contributed to the drastic fluctuations in market prices.
It should also be pointed out that the volatility of the rubber market in 2007 fell, although there may be a larger decline, but it will not fall back to the starting point of this round of super bull market, caught in the so-called "price winter." Its main basis: First, the consumption of rubber products such as tires in China is still very strong. In 2007, it continued to grow for several years now. Its solid foundation has not been shaken. Second, in recent years, the comprehensive cost of all kinds of rubber in China has been greatly improved, and it has a strong rigidity or irreversibility, which restricts the decline in the price of rubber, and prevents it from sliding into the “price winterâ€. Third, in the face of cost differences among different companies, the law of value will be adjusted spontaneously. Fourth, overseas rubber production organizations and oil production organizations will not do nothing in the face of continued decline in their products.
Slightly higher supply level From the supply side, the high price will stimulate rubber mulching enthusiasm. If serious natural disasters do not occur, it is expected that the country's (including privately-owned, the same below) natural rubber production can be stabilized at about 600,000 tons in 2007, which is the same as last year or has increased.
In recent years, under the guidance of strong demand, China's synthetic rubber production has maintained a rapid growth rate of more than 10%. There will be no major change in this situation in 2007. It is estimated that the annual output of synthetic rubber will exceed 2 million tons, an increase of more than 10%.
Overseas imports have always been a major aspect of China's rubber supply. According to the demand calculation, the import volume of natural rubber in the new year should not be less than 1.7 million tons, and the import volume of synthetic rubber should not be less than 1.4 million tons, which should exceed 10% year-on-year. Otherwise, there will be a tight supply situation.
In 2006, domestic rubber inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years. Among them, the dominant stocks of the Shanghai Futures Exchange exceeded 50,000 tons, and inventory in Hainan and Yunnan production regions was also significantly higher than that of the previous year. These inventory will be carried forward this year to become available resources.
In summary, it is expected that the availability of Chinese rubber in 2007 will be closer to 6 million tons, of which the new resources will reach 5.8 million tons, or even more, an increase of more than 9% over the previous year. In the year of new rubber resources, natural rubber is about 2.3 million tons, and synthetic rubber is more than 3.4 million tons.
Demand growth slows From the demand side, the pattern of rubber consumption growth in the new year remains unchanged, but the intensity has weakened. On the one hand, the rising cycle of China's economic growth in 2007 has not yet ended. China is still in the period of heavy chemical industry. The output of various types of motor vehicles continues to increase, and the length of highway transportation continues to increase. As a result, the consumption of rubber continues to increase. On the other hand, economic growth in both China and the United States will slow down in 2007 due to the two major engines that are currently driving global economic growth. The authoritative department predicts that the growth rate of China's economy will fall by about 2 percentage points in 2007, and the simultaneous deceleration of domestic and foreign economies will allow the consumption of rubber in China (including exports of rubber products) to increase despite the growth in the new year. It will fall back.
In addition, the "blowout" growth in the consumption of automotive and other plastic products is difficult to reproduce. In 2006, China's auto output increased by more than 20%, and reached 40% in individual months. In 2007, this kind of strong growth was hard to reproduce, and the growth of tires and other rubber products also fell.
Affected by the overall demand, it is expected that in 2007 China's rubber consumption will exceed 5.7 million tons, an increase of no less than 10% year-on-year, which is a drop from the 2006 level of growth. The consumption of natural rubber will reach or exceed 2.2 million tons, and the relationship between supply and demand will be roughly flat and slightly loose.
The end of the super bull market In the new year, the operating environment of the Chinese rubber market will undergo a major change, and the situation in which the prices of the Chinese rubber market will continue to rise for many years may end in 2007. The trend of the whole year will be high, low, and volatile.
The main factors ending the rise in the price level of rubber for several years, apart from the shift in market relations from a tight one to a balanced one, from the external environment of the market operation, it still lies in: At present, there are many inventories in Southeast Asia, and there is a lot of pressure on sales. Some agencies predict that oil prices in the international market will drop to below US$50/barrel. If this forecast is realised, the downside drag on the rubber market is self-evident; in 2007, the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise, and the rate of increase is likely to increase. Increase, thereby reducing the cost of imports of various types of rubber; but if the situation in the Middle East is further turmoil in 2007, or a large number of natural rubber production, and the sharp decline in prices triggered a new change in supply and demand, will release a strong upward market push. Under such circumstances, the domestic and foreign speculative funds have contributed to the drastic fluctuations in market prices.
It should also be pointed out that the volatility of the rubber market in 2007 fell, although there may be a larger decline, but it will not fall back to the starting point of this round of super bull market, caught in the so-called "price winter." Its main basis: First, the consumption of rubber products such as tires in China is still very strong. In 2007, it continued to grow for several years now. Its solid foundation has not been shaken. Second, in recent years, the comprehensive cost of all kinds of rubber in China has been greatly improved, and it has a strong rigidity or irreversibility, which restricts the decline in the price of rubber, and prevents it from sliding into the “price winterâ€. Third, in the face of cost differences among different companies, the law of value will be adjusted spontaneously. Fourth, overseas rubber production organizations and oil production organizations will not do nothing in the face of continued decline in their products.
Best Fertilizer,Organic Fertilizer,Chemical Fertilizers,Sodium Hexametaphosphate
HENAN BONSIN CHEMICAL CO.,LTD , https://www.bosinchem.com