US brokerage Jefferies said that as of now, orders this year have been 27% higher than the full year of 2012.
Analyst Johnson Leung pointed out in the report that new orders may delay the recovery of the shipping industry. In the 1970s and 1990s, new orders made the shipping industry difficult to recover.
According to Jefferies statistics, the total number of new ship orders has reached 69 million DWT so far this year. The reason for the large number of orders is that the market generally believes that the economy has begun to improve.
According to Leung, the results of the study indicate that the increase in new ship orders over the past 40 years usually leads to a rate of decline in freight rates that lags behind the global economic recovery. He explained that in 1982, the global GDP growth rate seems to have bottomed out, so the bulk carrier is the same. Between the 1970s and the 1990s, the VLCC market plunged for nearly 20 years due to the high order volume of new ships. Downturn.
Leung said that the current market conditions and similarities in the 1980s include: high oil prices, increased number of energy-efficient vessels, lower new shipbuilding costs, and ample shipyard berths. In addition, shipowners believe that the market has been in recession for a long time and should be able to Gradually rebounded and recovered.
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