On June 1st, the opening of the ammonium phosphate export gate opened up, and the bad news about India's big diamine monoammonium production, international ammonium phosphate price drop, and other bad news were frequent. The reporter’s recent interview with ammonium phosphate manufacturers showed that this year's ammonium phosphate exports are facing pressures of falling prices and prices.
The pressure for this year's decline in ammonium phosphate exports comes from many sources: First, India’s enthusiasm for purchasing diammonium was frustrated. In the first quarter of last year, India signed nearly 4 million tons of ammonium phosphate import orders, but this year the total number of orders signed as of June is less than 1.5 million tons. This year, China's exports to India diammonium also lags behind last year. In June last year, exports of diammonium to India were 223,000 tons, which accounted for 74% of total diammonium exports for the current month. This year, large orders for India have not yet been finalized.
Wu Xuemei, deputy secretary-general of the China Phosphatic Fertilizer Industry Association, believes that two major factors will affect India's enthusiasm for diammonium procurement: First, the Indian rupee depreciates sharply. In the past 12 months, the Indian rupee depreciated by more than 20%, and purchasing power dropped sharply. Second, the amount of fertilizer subsidies in India is across the board. Downgraded, the allowance for diammonium decreased by about 27%. Wu Xuemei believes that there is no obvious change in domestic demand in India, but due to the devaluation of the rupee and the adjustment of subsidies leading to high domestic diammonium prices, Indian farmers’ enthusiasm for purchasing diammonium is frustrated.
Followed by Saudi Arabia's new capacity impact on China's exports. This year Saudi Arabia's first-stage ammonium phosphate plant production is expected to reach 1.5 million tons. Under the advantage of shipping distance, Saudi Arabia's diammonium will inevitably affect China's exports to India. It is understood that in the case of large production difficulties in China and India, this month, Saudi Arabia has successively reached orders of 6 to 100,000 tons with India at a price of US$580/ton CIF.
Once again, an indirect ammonium export was blocked. After this year's NP dual-fertilizer export policy adjustment, it is difficult for an ammonium to export indirectly through the use of dual-fertilizer. "The direct and indirect reduction of ammonium phosphate exports this year may reach 2 million tons." Yang Huafeng, general manager of Hubei Xinyangfeng, believes that “the NP binary fertilizer exports last year digested more than 1 million tons of monoammonium. This year, NP binary fertilizer concentrates exports in June and September, and the export volume is reduced by several percent.â€
At the same time, the export price of ammonium phosphate also showed a decline. The average FOB price of China's exports of diammonium to India from June to September last year was US$560.3, and the FOB prices of Pakistan and Bangladesh were 577.6 and 603 US dollars, respectively. However, this year's situation is not the case. At present, India's CIF target price of USD 580 is equivalent to the FOB price of only USD 550. From the perspective of export orders already implemented by domestic manufacturers in June, the FOB prices for Pakistan and Bangladesh are in US$560-565, down 12-43 dollars from last year.
The decline in export prices was due to the overall downturn of international ammonium phosphate. According to statistics, in early June last year, the international ammonium phosphate trade distribution center Tunisia, Morocco and the Baltic diammonium FOB price of 630 ~ 640 US dollars, and this year only 560 ~ 590 US dollars, down 40 to 80 US dollars. At present, the diammonium price of USD 580 is down by 30 USD compared with the same period of last year.
"This year's ammonium phosphate export prices are not comparable to last year. The international economic situation is sluggish. The overall international market for ammonium phosphate is sluggish. China is also an exception." A person in charge of Yuntianhua's International Marketing Department stated that at present domestic enterprises are facing low prices or even The cost of export pressure.
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